基于ARMA模型的GIS局部放电发展趋势预测

Prediction of GIS Partial Discharge Development Trend Based on ARMA Model

气体绝缘组合电器(gas insulated switchgear,GIS)设备局部放电存在安全隐患,不容忽视。文中采用特高频法研究GIS中典型局部放电过程,建立局部放电缺陷模型,进行大量试验获得数据。提取数据得到局部放电特征量,并采用局部放电特征谱图研究局部放电的特征。对特征量进行筛选、分类,选取不同类型特征量代入自回归移动平均模型中对GIS局部放电发展趋势的预测情况进行分析研究。结果表明:①对于局部放电线性参量,ARMA预测模型可以对其发展趋势进行准确预测,整体预测误差值均在10%以下;②对于局部放电阶跃参量,ARMA预测模型可以对其发展趋势进行预测,但难以较为精确地预测其具体数值;③对于局部放电非线性参量,ARMA预测模型难以对其发展趋势进行预测,但所预测参量的极值和峰值有一定的参考价值。

The partial dischange of GIS equipment has potential safety hazard,which can not be ignored.The UHF method is used to study the typical partial discharge process in GIS,and some partial discharge defect models are es⁃tablished to conduct a large number of experiments.The characteristic parameters of partial discharge are obtained via the experimental data,and the characteristics of partial discharge are studied by using the characteristic spec⁃trum of partial discharge.The characteristic quantities are selected and classified,and different types of characteris⁃tic quantities are chosen to be substituted into the auto⁃regressive and moving average(ARMA)model to analyze the development trend prediction of partial discharge in GIS.The results show that:1)for the linear parameters of partial discharge,the ARMA model can accurately predict partial discharge development trend,and the overall prediction error is less than 10%;2)for the step parameters of partial discharge,the ARMA model can predict partial dis⁃charge development trend,but is difficult to give accurate prediction;and 3)for the non⁃linear parameters of partial discharge,the ARMA model cannot predict partial discharge development trend,but can give extremes and peaks of the parameters for reference.