寒潮对我国人群死亡影响的meta分析

Meta-analysis of the impact of cold spell on mortality in China

目的定量评价寒潮对我国人群死亡的影响。方法检索了PubMed、Scopus、Web of Science和Medline的英文数据库,以及国内的国家知识基础设施和万方数据的中文数据库,并按照纳入标准纳入文献。运用R 3.4.3软件进行meta分析。结果本研究共纳入11篇研究寒潮对我国人群死亡率影响的研究。经meta分析合计得到,寒潮对我国人群非意外死亡、心血管疾病与呼吸系统疾病人群死亡的风险(Risk ratio,RR)分别为1.25(95%CI:1.11~1.40)、1.36(95%CI:1.16~1.58)与1.46(95%CI:1.21~1.75)。2008年寒潮对全人群影响的RR值为1.38(95%CI:1.18~1.61)。对于不同个体人群,寒潮对≥65岁的老年人、教育程度低下者的影响更大;而性别间寒潮的影响无差异。结论寒潮对我国人群健康有较为严重的影响,需要在省或全国范围内构建并应用基于健康风险的寒潮预警系统,从而对敏感人群进行精准保护。

Objective To quantitatively evaluate the impact of cold spell on mortality in China.Methods The English databases,such as PubMed,Scopus,Web of Science and Medline,as well as the Chinese database,such as China’s National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang data were retrieved and included in the literature screening according to the inclusion criteria.Meta-analysis was performed using R 3.4.3 software.Results This meta analysis included 11 studies on the impact of cold spell on mortality in China.The pooled risk ratio(RR)of cold spell on non-accidental death,deaths from cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease was 1.25(95%CI:1.11-1.40),1.36(95%CI:1.16-1.58)and 1.46(95%CI:1.21-1.75),respectively.The 2008 Cold Spell caused much serious health effect,with RR of 1.38(95%CI:1.18-1.61).For different subpopulations,those aged≥65 years older and persons with lower education level were particularly vulnerable to cold spell,while similar effect of cold spell was not observed among males and females.Conclusion Negative effect of cold spell on mortality was observed in China.The application of health risk-based early warning system for cold spell in provincial and national level may be recommended.