四川省县域人均GDP空间演变及其影响因素

Spatial Evolution of County-Level GDP Per Capita in Sichuan Province and Its Influencing Factors

借助GIS空间分析和地理加权回归模型等方法,系统研究了2000-2017年四川省县域人均GDP的时空特征及影响因素.结果表明:2000-2017年间,四川省县域人均GDP快速增长,区域差异较大,空间聚集性显著;县域人均GDP的热点区和冷点区总体格局稳定,热点区主要分布在成都市、攀枝花市,冷点区多分布在巴中市、甘孜州及凉山州.县域人均GDP标准差椭圆呈现“东北-西南”走向,表现出“扩散-收敛”的阶段性特征.县域人均GDP重心分布在眉山市东坡区、仁寿县和青神县的交界地带,并逐渐向南偏东方向转移;二、三产业增加值比重、人均工业总产值、人均固定资产投资、人均社会消费品零售总额、平均工资对县域人均GDP的推动作用显著,城镇化水平对县域人均GDP影响的区域差异较大,人力资本对县域人均GDP的影响较弱.在产业结构、工业水平、投资与消费、城镇化水平等经济与社会因素的综合影响下,四川省县域人均GDP形成了在成都、攀枝花地区较高,其余地区较低的空间聚集与分异格局.

The spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of county-level GDP per capita in Sichuan province from 2000 to 2017 were put under systematical examination in this paper using GIS spatial analysis and geographically weighted regression model.It is found:(1)From 2000 to 2017,the county-level GDP per capita in Sichuan Province underwent a rapid growth,with huge regional differences and significant spatial aggregation;(2)The overall pattern of hot spots and cold spots of county-level GDP per capita remains stable.Hot spots are mainly distributed in Chengdu and Panzhihua,while cold spots are mostly found in Bazhong City,Ganzi Zang Autonomous Prefecture and Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture.The standard deviation ellipse of county-level GDP per capita shows a“northeast-southwest distribution trend and a phased characteristic of”diffusion-convergence.The county-level GDP per capita is centered around the junction of Dongpo District,Renshou County and Qingshen County of Meishan City,and gradually shifts towards the southeast.(3)The proportion of added value of secondary and tertiary industries,per capita gross industrial output value,per capita investment in fixed assets,per capita total retail sales of consumer goods and average wages contribute significantly to the county-level GDP per capita in Sichuan province.The impact of the urbanization level on the county-level GDP per capita varies from region to region,while human capital has a rather weak impact on that.It is concluded that under the comprehensive influence of economic and social factors like industrial structure,industrial level,investment and consumption,level of urbanization,the per capita county GDP in Sichuan Province has formed a pattern of spatial aggregation and differentiation,which is characteristic of“a higher concentration in Chengdu and Panzhihua,and a lower concentration in the other regions”.