摘要
本文运用拔靴全样本和子样本滚动窗口因果关系检验方法,研究了我国金融稳定性与土地价格之间的动态因果关系。实证结果表明,金融稳定性提高会导致土地价格上涨;但过高的土地价格却会引起金融稳定性的降低。此外,金融稳定性与三种类型土地价格之间的相互作用与土地整体价格互动关系略有不同,但大致相似;金融稳定性与商业和住宅用地价格的交互影响程度高于与工业用地价格间的影响程度。了解金融稳定性与土地价格相互作用的传导机制,有助于在防止土地价格过度扩张的同时,制定相关政策,维护我国金融市场稳定。
This paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between financial stability and land price in China by using full-sample and sub-sample rolling-window bootstrap causality tests.The results show that high financial stability could lead to rise in land price,but high land price could cause low financial stability.Moreover,the interactions between financial stability and different types of land price are slightly different from the integrated land price but is roughly similar;and the degree of interaction between financial stability and commercial or residential land price are higher than industrial land price.Understanding the transmission mechanism of financial stability and land price may help decision-making authorities stabilize China's finance while preventing excessive expansion of land price.
作者
张帅
秦梦
张少萍
Zhang Shuai;Qin Meng;Zhang Shaoping(PBC Qingdao Central Sub-branch,Qingdao 266000,Shandong,China;Graduate School,Party School of the Central Committee ofCPC(NationalAcademy of Governance),Beijing 100091,China;Qindao College,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266000,Shandong,China)
出处
《金融发展研究》
北大核心
2020年第8期20-27,共8页
Journal Of Financial Development Research
关键词
金融稳定性
土地价格
因果关系
拔靴滚动窗口检验
financial stability
land price
causality relationship
bootstrap rolling willow test
