全面剖析中国企业杠杆率的异质性:规模、周期与盈利能力——基于三大数据库的比较分析

A Comprehensive Analysis of the Heterogeneity of Chinese Enterprises Leverage Ratio:Scale,Cycle and Profitability

本文基于Wind上市企业数据库、工业企业数据库和BVD Oriana亚太企业数据库对中国企业杠杆率的结构特征和风险进行测算、对比和分析,试图全面了解中国企业杠杆率的现状。从宏观结构来看,大企业的杠杆率是顺周期的,而且上市企业顺周期性更为明显,而小企业杠杆率的周期特征并不明显;中国企业长期杠杆率分化而短期杠杆率趋同;制造业行业降杠杆比整体更为显著。从微观结构来看,高盈利企业的杠杆率更低,且这个特征在民营企业中更突出;僵尸企业的杠杆率水平远高于普通企业;国有企业杠杆率水平更高,但去杠杆趋势并不显著。目前,风险债务的杠杆率较高,但是中国企业的信贷资源风险和收益的匹配情况持续改善。短期来看,去杠杆的政策主要应该落实在僵尸企业和低盈利企业中,并对建筑业、房地产、批发零售业和采矿业等高杠杆行业加强控制;中期来看,解决小企业和民营企业的融资约束问题有助于改善杠杆率;长期来看,只有促进供给侧结构改革与提高生产率水平,才能从根本上防范企业债务风险。

Based on Wind listed enterprise database,industrial enterprise database and BVD Oriana enterprise database,this paper calculates,compares and analyzes the structural characteristics and risks of leverage ratio of Chinese enterprises,and attempts to comprehensively understand the current situation of Chinese enterprises leverage ratio. From the perspective of macro structure,the leverage ratio of large enterprises is pro-cyclical and the listed enterprises is more obvious,while the cyclical characteristics of the leverage ratio of small enterprises are not obvious. The long-term leverage ratio of Chinese enterprises diverges while the short-term leverage ratio converges. The deleveraging trend in the manufacturing sector is more pronounced than overall. From the perspective of microstructure,the leverage ratio of highprofit enterprises is lower than low-profit enterprises,and this feature is more prominent in private enterprises. Zombie companies have much higher leverage than ordinary companies. The leverage ratio of state-owned enterprises is higher than private enterprises,but the deleveraging trend is not significant. At present,the leverage ratio of risky debt is high,but the matching of risk and return of credit resources of Chinese enterprises continues to improve. In the short term,deleveraging policies should mainly be implemented in zombie enterprises and low-profit enterprises,and the regulators should strengthen control over highly leveraged industries such as construction,real estate,wholesale and retail,and mining. In the medium term,solving the financing constraints of small and private enterprises will help improve the leverage ratio. In the long term,only by promoting supply-side structural reform and improving productivity can we fundamentally prevent enterprise debt risk.