中国水果进口影响因素分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of China’s Fruits Import

针对中国水果进口逐年增加的状况,首先探讨了影响中国水果进口的主要因素,包括人均国民生产总值(GDP)、城镇化水平、人口数量、水果出口数量和消费惯性等。在此基础之上,通过建立多元线性回归模型,进一步量化了以上因素对中国水果进口的影响程度,并采用岭回归法对模型的多重共线性进行了修正;揭示了人均GDP、城镇化水平、人口数量、水果出口和消费惯性等因素对水果进口均存在不同程度的正向影响。最后,结合经济和社会发展趋势,展望了未来中国对进口水果消费需求的变化。

In view of the situation of China’s fruits import increasing year by year, the main factors influencing China’s fruits import were firstly discussed, including per capita GDP, urbanization level,population, fruits export quantity and consumption inertia. On this basis, through the establishment of Multiple Linear Regression model, the impact of above factors on the import of Chinese fruits were further quantified,Ridge Regression method was used to modify the model’s multicollinearity, and different degrees of positive influence on fruits import were revealed from per capita GDP, urbanization level, population, fruits export and consumption inertia. Finally, combined with the trend of economic and social development, changes in China’s consumption demand for imported fruits were forecasted.