美国对中国科技创新研判的历史变迁与未来走向——基于《美国中国经济安全审查委员会(USCC)年报》的分析

The Historical Change and Future Trend of American Research and Judgment on China’s Scientific and Technological Innovation——Analysis Based on the Annual Report of USCC

[目的/意义]通过分析中美贸易战背景下美国对中国科技创新的研判及对策的发展脉络,为我国相关机构提供决策参考。[方法/过程]采用内容分析法、历史分析法等方法对美中经济安全审查委员会2002-2019年《年报》中与科技创新相关的内容进行历史发展脉络分析。[结果/结论]预测美国对中国科技创新的竞争性战略的未来发展趋势:贸易战将会愈演愈烈,美国将以高科技为核心目标,以"人才战"为关键,以"标准战"为重要手段,"由点到面及体"逐步遏制中国发展。提出我国下一步的应对对策建议:要做好持久战的准备;提升科技安全进攻能力和防御能力;引进与培养并举,大力加强高科技人才队伍建设;继续提升国际标准制定话语权。

[Purpose/Significance]Through the analysis of the development context of the U.S.scientific and technological innovation in China under the background of Sino-U.S.trade war,we can provide decision-making reference for the relevant institutions in China.[Method/Process]This paper uses content analysis and historical analysis to analyze the historical development context of the contents related to scientific and technological innovation in the 2002-2019 annual reports of the US China Economic Security Review Commission.[Result/Conclusion]This paper predicts the future development trend of the competitive strategy of the United States for China’s scientific and technological innovation:the trade war will become more and more fierce,the United States will take high technology as the core goal,"talent war"as the key,and"standard war"as an important means to gradually curb China’s development.The following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward:to prepare for a long-term war;to improve the offensive and defensive capabilities of China’s science and technology security;to introduce and train at the same time,to strengthen the construction of high-tech talents;to continue to improve the voice of China’s international standard setting.