人工智能对国家安全的影响——基于美国四家智库的观点分析

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on National Security:An Analysis of Four Think Tanks in the United States

[目的/意义]当前人工智能的快速发展与广泛应用,正在引发一场全新的技术革命和产业变革,进而对大国的国家安全和国际力量平衡产生深远影响。以美国四家主要智库的相关研究成果为基础,综合分析其对人工智能影响国家安全的总体认知和主要观点,深入探讨人工智能时代国家安全面临的新变化、新风险和新对策。[方法/过程]采用文本分析法和归纳法,对四家智库的研究成果进行系统解读,结合当前技术变革与大国竞争的总趋势,从人工智能对国家战略安全的影响和对潜在风险的评估两方面研判美国智库的观点和结论。[结果/结论]立足中国国家安全的视角,推进人工智能发展要优先补齐国家战略安全短板;破解外部打压要有长期准备和积极应对;发挥人工智能在国家治理中的作用同时要防范安全风险。

[Purpose/Significance]At present,the rapid development and wide application of artificial intelligence is triggering a new technological revolution and industrial change,which has a profound impact on the national security and international power balance of the great powers.Based on the relevant research results of four major think tanks in the United States,this paper comprehensively analyzes their overall cognition and main views on the impact of artificial intelligence on national security,and probes into the new changes,new risks and new countermeasures faced by national security in the era of artificial intelligence.[Method/Process]Using text analysis and induction,this paper systematically interprets the research results of four think tanks,and combines with the general trend of current technological change and competition among major countries,and studies and judges the viewpoints and conclusions of American think tanks from two aspects:the impact of artificial intelligence on national strategic security and the assessment of potential risks.[Result/Conclusion]Based on the perspective of China’s national security,this paper argues that to promote the development of artificial intelligence,we should give priority to making up for the shortcomings of national strategic security;to crack external repression,we should have long-term preparation and active response;to play the role of artificial intelligence in national governance,we should guard against security risks at the same time.