基于灰色系统模型的矿区地表沉降预测研究

Study on mining surface subsidence prediction based on grey system model

文中以灰色Verhulst模型为预测模型,以陕西北部某煤矿某综采工作面地表26期实测沉降值为实验数据,开展了地下采矿后地表沉降预测的实践研究。以实验数据中的A10、A11、A12和A13号监测点预测结果计算了灰色系统模型检验中后验方差法的C值和P值,进行了预测模型的精度评价。结果表明:灰色系统Verhulst模型精度达到了一级,可为地下采煤区地表沉降预测研究与实践提供参考。

In this paper,the Grey Verhulst Model was adopted as the prediction model to study the surface subsidence prediction after underground mining on the basis of experimental data of the measured subsidence value of Phase26 on the working surface of comprehensive mining from a coal mine in Northern part of Shaanxi Province. Then,the value C and value P by the posterior variance method were calculated during the grey system model test based on the prediction results of monitoring points A10,A11,A12 and A13 and also the accuracy of the prediction model was evaluated. The results showed that the accuracy of Grey Verhulst Model reached the level one,which could provide reference for the study and practice of surface subsidence prediction in underground coal mining area.