中国城市收缩的综合测度及其时空分异特征研究

On the comprehensive measurement of urban shrinkin China and its spatio-temporal differentiation

随着城市化进程的不断推进,中国城市扩张与收缩并存现象已经显现,过去以增长型城市规划作为顶层设计的战略模式需要作出调整,这必然需要更为客观全面地了解中国城市收缩现象及其时空分异。构建城市收缩综合评价指标体系,运用收缩度模型、主客观赋权法和多指标综合评价法,对中国288个地级以上城市进行评价,并运用DPS处理软件中的灰色关联分析探究城市收缩的驱动机制,从而提出相应的对策建议。结果表明:①从收缩城市数量和严重程度来看,2011—2017年综合收缩城市有10个,人口收缩城市41个,经济收缩城市28个,社会收缩城市3个,且不同类型收缩城市的严重程度存在区域差异;②从城市收缩的时空演变特征来看,2014—2017年较2011—2014年的收缩城市数量呈现明显增长趋势,空间分布上以东北地区为主,并开始在全国其他省区蔓延;③从长期收缩和短期收缩来看,不管是综合收缩城市还是人口、经济和社会收缩城市,均集中分布在东北地区,且长期收缩城市在数量上要明显少于短期收缩城市;④从不同维度收缩城市的组合关系来看,人口-经济收缩型城市数量较多,人口-社会收缩型城市数量较少,没有出现经济-社会收缩型城市,而且全维度收缩城市也开始逐渐增多;⑤从城市收缩的影响因素和驱动机制来看,交通状况、环境质量、人口增长和科技创新是导致城市收缩的主要因素,由此归纳出核心城市或区域吸附、资源枯竭、区划调整等几种驱动机制;⑥从城市收缩的应对策略来看,应按照因地制宜、因时制宜和因城制宜的原则,从城市精明收缩、复兴导向的城镇化策略和韧性城市建设等角度来灵活应对城市收缩问题。

With the development of China’s urbanization process,the coexistence of urban expansion and contraction has emerged,and the strategic mode of growth-oriented urban planning as a top-level design in the past needs to be adjusted.In order to objectively reveal the phenomenon of urban shrinkage in China,a comprehensive evaluation index system for urban shrinkage in China was constructed.This study used the shrinkage model,the subjective and objective weighting method,and multi-index comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the driving mechanism of urban shrinkage in 288 prefecture-level cities or above in China.The gray correlation analysis in the DPS software explored the driving mechanism of urban shrinkage,and proposed the corresponding countermeasures.The results show that:①From the number and severity of the shrinking cities,there were 10 comprehensively shrinking cities,41 population-related shrinking cities,28 economy-related shrinking cities,and 3 society-related shrinking cities from 2011 to 2017,and different types of shrinking cities showed regional differences in severity.②From the perspective of the spatial and temporal evolution of urban shrinkage,the number of shrinking cities from 2014 to 2017 showed a significant increase in comparison with that in the 2011—2014 period.The spatial distribution was mainly in the northeast region,and began to spread in other provinces and regions across the country.③From the perspective of long-term contraction and short-term contraction,whether they were comprehensively shrinking cities or population,economy or society-related shrinking cities,they were concentrated in the northeast region,and the number of long-term shrinking cities was significantly less than the short-term ones.④From the perspective of the combination of shrinking cities in different dimensions,there were a large number cities with population and economy-related shrinking cities,a small number of population and society-related shrinking cities,and no economy and society-related shrinking cities,and the number of full-dimensional shrinking cities was gradually increasing.⑤From the perspective of the influencing factors and driving mechanisms of urban shrinkage,traffic conditions,environmental quality,population growth,and technological innovation were the main factors that led to urban shrinkage.This study further summarized the mechanisms of core city or region adsorption,resource exhaustion,and regional adjustment.⑥From the perspective of coping strategies for urban shrinkage,the problems of urban shrinkage should be flexibly dealt with according to smart urban contraction,revival-oriented urbanization,and resilient urban construction.