中国海洋科技-经济-环境系统耦合协调的时空演化

Coupling between marine technology, economy and environment systems in China

在建设海洋强国背景下,依靠科技创新驱动海洋经济高质量增长,同时注重海洋生态环境保护,是促进中国海洋事业可持续发展的战略要求。文章从关联性和协调性角度分别梳理了海洋科技、海洋经济与海洋环境之间的复杂互动,构建出海洋科技-经济-环境复合系统的整合性研究框架。通过构建科学评价体系,利用耦合协调度模型和组合预测模型分析了中国沿海地区海洋复合系统协调发展的时空演化特征。结果发现:①2007—2016年沿海11个省份海洋复合系统的综合发展指数始终保持增长态势。三个子系统的发展指数均有显著提升,但变化幅度和方向存在较大的非同步性。②11个省份耦合协调度的历年均值为0.74,达到中级协调水平,其中科技-经济子系统的耦合变化最大。空间分布上,自北向南耦合协调度总体递减,环渤海地区最高,其次是长三角地区,泛珠三角地区的协调度最低。③10年间,多数省份的海洋系统由经济-环境耦合驱动,转变为科技-经济耦合发挥支配作用,表明海洋科技和经济之间的关联愈发密切,同时也存在对海洋环境的重视缺位。④相比基于历史数据模拟的常规情景,根据外部预期调整后的目标情景显示出更高的协调度预测值,说明如果延续过去的海洋发展方式将难以达到可持续的协调要求。特别是常规情景下经济-环境子系统的相对滞后,将可能制约未来海洋经济向质量效益型转变。因此,需要强化海洋系统自身的循环供给能力,调整海洋科技投入方向,优化海洋科技产出结构,同时实行更加严格的海洋生态保护政策,提升区域性乃至全国海洋系统的协调发展水平。

Under the context of building maritime power,developing high-quality marine economy by relying on science and technology(S&T)innovation while paying attention to marine environmental protection isessentialto the promotion of the sustainable development of China’s marine system.This paper firstly summarizes the complex interactions between marine S&T,economy and environment from the perspective of relevance and coordination,and then constructs an integrated framework of a marine technological-economic-environmental system.By constructing an indicator system,the coordinated development of the marine system in coastal areas of China is analyzed by using the coupling model and the combined prediction model.The results show that:①The comprehensive development index of marine systems in the 11 coastal provinces sustains the growth trend from 2007 to 2016.The development index of three subsystem also grows significantly,while showing non-synergies in direction and degree.②The average annual value of the coupling degree of these 11 provinces reaches 0.74,attaining the intermediate coordination level.The technological-economic subsystem shows the largest change.With regard to the spatial difference,the coupling degree of the Bohai Rim region is the highest,followed by Yangtze River Delta region,with the Pan-Pearl River Delta being the lowest.③During the past 10 years,most of the marine systems among the 11 provinces have been transformed from economic-environmental coupling to technological-economic coupling,which means that the relationship between marine technology and economy is becoming closer,while the marine environment has been largely ignored.④Compared with the traditional scenario,the target scenario based on external expectations shows a higher degree of coupling prediction,indicating that it will be difficult to achieve sustainable requirements if the past marine development mode is continued.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the capacity of circulation supply in marine system,optimize the marine S&T investment and output structure,as well as implement more strict marine ecological protection policies to enhance the coordinated development of regional and national marine systems.