九年一贯制入学政策会拉高学区住宅价格吗?——基于双重差分分析

Will the Nine-Year Education School Policy Raise the Housing Prices in the Relevant School Districts?——Based on Difference in Differences Analysis

九年一贯制入学政策(以下简称“一贯制政策”)是义务教育改革的重要举措,力图缓解“择校热”,推进义务教育高位均衡发展,然而一贯制政策会否直接影响相关住房的价格,在原普通小学与优质初中联合后持续抬升前者的学区房价?本文以北京市东城区为案例,利用双重差分模型(DID)探究一贯制政策对原普通小学学区内住宅价格的影响。研究发现:该政策将使有关学区内房价上涨,但上涨效应并非即时出现,而是在政策出台后第六个季度才开始显现,且涨幅高于周边房价的状况仅持续约一年时间。研究表明,一贯制政策从长期来看不会使学区房价格上涨持续走高,它给房价造成的外部性较小,具有一定推广价值。

The nine-year education school policy of enrollment is an important measure for the reform of compulsory education,which seeks to reduce the pressure of school choice and promote the high quality and balanced development of compulsory education.However,will the nine-year policy affect the price of the relevant houses,and continue to raise the housing prices of primary school districts if an ordinary primary school is combined with a high quality junior high school?Taking Dong cheng District of Beijing as an example,this paper uses Difference in Differences model(DID)to explore the impact of the nine-year policy on residential prices in the former ordinary primary school district.It is found that the policy would increase the housing prices in the relevant school districts,but the rising effect appeared in the sixth season after the policy is introduced,rather than immediately,and the increase was higher than the surrounding area for only about one year.It shows that the nine-year policy will not continue to make the housing prices in the primary school district rising at a higher rate in the long run and will have less externality for residential prices,which means the policy is worth promoting.