台湾地区民粹主义的政治演进及影响

The Political Evolution and Influence of Taiwan’s Populism

上世纪七八十年代民粹主义在台湾兴起,早期曾对台湾民主转型发挥过一定的助推作用,但随着各种政治人物的持续操弄,民粹主义到李登辉时期开始呈现出典型的“威权化”特征,在陈水扁和马英九时期则逐渐往“选举化”方向发展。蔡英文上台后,作为执政党的民进党依然按照在野党时的思维模式,频频利用民粹主义打击异己,制造对立,该时期台湾民粹主义呈现出明显的“绿化”和“反中”特点。但由于民粹主义反精英、反建制、非理性的内在特质,民进党当局正面临着民粹主义反噬的巨大困境。在全球民粹主义第三波浪潮和岛内政治温床滋养的双重因素影响下,民粹主义在台湾将持续发酵,并将对岛内政治格局、经济民生和两岸关系带来新的变量。

Populism in Taiwan played a certain role in promoting Taiwan’s democratic transition in the early years after it rose in the 1970s.However,due to the constant manipulation of various politicians,populism began to show a typical“authoritarian populism”characteristics during Lee Teng-hui’s time and“electoral populism”characteristics during the period of Chen Shuibian and Ma Ying-jeou.After Tsai Ing-wen came to power,the DPP authorities continued to use populism to combat dissidents and consolidate political power with the mode of thinking in the field.During this period,Taiwan’s populism showed the characteristics of“greening”and“antichina”.However,as populism has the inherent characteristics of anti-elite,anti-establishment and irrational,the DPP authorities are facing a huge dilemmast,which is prominently manifested in social confrontation,public anxiety and the structural dilemma of cross-Straits relations.Under the influence of multiple factors such as the third wave of global populism,the unique dual political structure and complex and changeable public opinion environment in Taiwan,populism will continue to ferment in Taiwan,and it will bring new variables to Taiwan’s political pattern,economic and social development and cross-Straits relations.