生物病原灾害对台湾经济的影响与评估:以新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情为例

Impact and Evaluation of Biological Pathogen Disasters on Taiwan’s Economy:A Case Study of Novel Coronavirus Disease(COVID-19)

随着致灾因子不确定性的增加,以及承灾体暴露性和脆弱性的不断增强,全球生物病原灾害呈现出多频次、高强度、范围广等趋势。新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情已蔓延至全球,对世界经济的冲击越来越明显。全球经济面临大幅下滑风险,台湾地区也不例外。本文首先梳理生物病原灾害对社会经济系统的作用机制,进而分析新冠肺炎疫情对台湾宏观经济的影响,并评估对具体产业的影响,最后指出台湾经济增长面临的困境及未来走向。

With the increasing uncertainty of disaster-causing factors,and the increasing exposure and vulnerability of natural disaster exposure,global biological pathogenic disasters have shown a trend of multifrequency,high intensity,wide range,etc.The outbreak of Novel Coronavirus Disease(COVID-19)has spread to the whole world,and its impact on the world economy is becoming increasingly obvious.Currently,the world economy is at the risk of a sharp downturn,and Taiwan is no exception.The paper firstly describes the mechanism of the biological pathogenic disaster on the socio-economic system,and then analyzes the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on Taiwan’s macro-economy,especially on its specific industries.Finally,it points out the dilemma and future trend of Taiwan’s economic growth.