柳暗花明——人民币汇率展望

Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining——Outlook of RMB Exchange Rate

2020年以来人民币汇率转为宽幅震荡行情。得益于我国全球疫情防控和复工复产的先行者优势,在全球避险情绪飙升、美元流动性紧张时期,人民币汇率相对其它非美货币录得较小贬值幅度。此后人民币交易逻辑重归基本面和中美关系驱动。展望下半年,无论从美元指数、国内货币信用环境还是国际收支情况来看,人民币汇率都将呈现更加积极的因素,最大的不确定性是中美关系发展。

Since the beginning of 2020,the RMB exchange rate has seen a roller coaster of wide-ranged fluctuations.Thanks to China's pioneering role in global pandemic containment and resumption of work and production,the RMB exchange rate registered a smaller depreciation relative to other non-dollar currencies at a time of soaring global risk aversion and tight US dollar liquidity.Since then the RMB trading has returned to the normal logic driven by fundamentals and Sino-US relations only.Looking into H22020,either in terms of the dollar index,the domestic money credit environment or the balance of payments,the RMB exchange rate will present more positive factors with the biggest uncertainty being the development of Sino-US relations.