中国近岸海域基础预报单元海温预报指导产品研制

Development of forecast guidance product for sea temperature of basic forecast units in the Chinese coastal waters

基于海温数值预报系统和偏差订正释用方法,开发了中国近岸海域基础预报单元海温预报指导产品,并对2018年7月—2019年9月长时间序列的预报结果进行了检验评估。结果表明:该产品对未来3 d预报的日平均绝对误差分别达到了0.17℃、0.30℃和0.38℃,预报准确度良好,能够为我国县级海域提供较为准确的海温预报产品。

Based on a SST forecasting system and deviation correction method for interpretation,a forecast guidance product for the SST of basic forecast units in the Chinese coastal waters is developed,and the forecast products from July 2018 to September 2019 are evaluated in this paper.The results show that the average absolute errors of the three-day forecast are 0.17,0.30 and 0.38,respectively,which reveals the high accuracy of the forecast guidance product for the Chinese coastal waters on a county-level basis.The prediction accuracy is good enough to provide more accurate sea surface temperature forecast products for the county-level sea areas in China.