1970—2015年中东地区恐怖袭击事件的时空特征分析

Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of terrorist attacks in the Middle East from 1970 to 2015

中东作为恐怖活动的多发区域,了解其恐怖袭击的时空特征对恐怖活动治理具有重要意义。基于GTD的恐怖袭击事件空间分布数据,运用GIS空间分析方法对中东地区1970—2015年袭击事件的时空特征进行了探索,研究发现:恐怖组织偏好在边境区域活动,超过50%的袭击事件发生在距边界15km的范围内,约80%的袭击事件位于距边界35km范围内;恐怖袭击重心呈现出一定的空间迁移特征,主要分布于伊拉克、叙利亚、黎巴嫩、巴勒斯坦、约旦和以色列等西亚地区,重心的变化与地区之间的武装冲突、战争等具有空间上的关联性;历年的恐怖袭击形成了涉及伊拉克、伊朗、土耳其、以色列、约旦河西岸和加沙地带、黎巴嫩和阿尔及利亚的三处主要集聚区,同时集聚区伴随时间推移发生变化,各时间段的主、次集聚区分布于12个国家与地区,且恐怖主义活动表现出愈发激烈的趋势;恐怖袭击总体上存在显著的空间相关性,在不同时间段内,"高-高"聚类地区具有一定的空间分异性,但恐怖袭击的空间集聚现象愈加明显。

The Middle East is a hot spot for terrorist activities. Based on the spatial distribution data of terrorist attacks from GTD, GIS spatial analysis method was applied in exploring the temporal and spatial characteristics of the attacks in the Middle East from 1970 to 2015. The results showed:(1) Terrorist organizations preferred to carry out attacks in border areas. More than 50% of the attacks occurred within 15 km from the border, and about 80% of the attacks occurred within 35 km.(2) The gravity center of terrorist attacks showed a certain spatial movement characteristics with the evolution of time. These gravity centers mainly distributed in West Asia such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan and Israel. The changes of gravity centers were spatially related to the armed conflicts and wars among the regions.(3) The terrorist attacks over the years formed three gathering areas, involving Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Algeria, while the gathering area changed over time. The major and minor gathering areas during each time period were distributed in 12 countries and regions, and the terrorist activities showed an increasingly fierce trend.(4) Generally, there was significant global spatial correlation on terrorist attacks. In different time periods, the "highhigh" cluster area had a certain spatial differentiation, but the spatial gathering phenomenon of regional terrorist attacks was becoming more and more obvious.