缅甸民主改革以来政治冲突的时空分异与发展趋势分析

Spatial-temporal differentiation and development trend of political conflict in Myanmar since democratic reform

2012年缅甸民主改革以来,其国内外政治环境发生了重大变化,国内政治团体多样化趋势明显、政治环境复杂多变、政治冲突频发。基于此,以ACLED提供的缅甸政治冲突事件数据为研究基础,选取2010—2018年缅甸发生的政治冲突事件,运用空间统计分析和核密度分析方法,对缅甸政治冲突事件的时空演变进行分析,结果表明:缅甸政治冲突阶段性波动增长趋势显著,形成梯度集聚分布格局,呈现出以掸邦与克钦邦毗邻区、仰光、若开邦为核心的三级梯度集聚中心,并不断向周围扩散的空间演变趋势。近十年,整个演变过程由南向北逐渐转移,从东至西迅速扩散,以沿边、沿海集中向全国其他地区分散分布的态势。省邦尺度上政治冲突两极分化明显。同时,事件类型更为多样化,参与组织日趋复杂化。根据缅甸政治冲突的时空分异特征与发展趋势,今后"一带一路"倡议在缅建设及对缅投资时应当以都市区、缅族聚居区为核心,尽量避免高危地区,同时加强对缅地缘风险评估预警的研究,及时发布相关提醒,保障中资企业、相关部门和个体在缅开展交流合作中的安全。

Since the Democratic Reform in Myanmar in 2012, significant changes have taken place in the domestic and international environment. The diversification of domestic political groups is obvious, the political environment is complex and changeable, and political conflicts are frequent. Based on the data of political conflicts in Myanmar provided by ACLED database,this paper chooses the events of political conflicts in Myanmar from 2010 to 2018, and uses the methods of spatial statistical analysis and nuclear density analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of political conflicts in Myanmar. Research indicates: Myanmar’s political conflict events have a remarkable fluctuating growth trend, forming a gradient agglomeration distribution pattern, with three-level agglomeration centers as the core and spreading to the surrounding areas, showing a trend of gradual transfer from south to north, rapid spread from east to west,concentration along the border and coast to other parts of the country. The polarization of provincial-state distribution is obvious, and the types of events are more diversified. Participating organizations are becoming more and more complex. According to the spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics and development trend of Myanmar’s political conflicts, China should take the metropolitan area and the Myanmar’s community as the core and avoid high-risk areas as soon as possible while promote to "The Belt and Road" construction and the investment in Myanmar, in the future. At the same time, the assessment and early warning of geopolitical risks will promptly issue relevant reminders to ensure the interest of Chinese-funded enterprises in Myanmar.