产品内分工视角下全球制造业生产网络的演化特征

Evolution of global manufacturing production networks from the perspective of intra-product specialization

基于UN Comtrade数据库176个国家及地区的83类制造业半成品或成品的贸易数据,运用社会网络分析,构建2001、2006、2011和2016年总体与分产品的全球制造业生产网络,分析不同时期各类网络的拓扑变化特征。随后,基于各网络拓扑指标建立产品内分工全球制造业生产网络的参与度指数,并构建面板数据计量模型,进一步揭示演化背后的作用机理。研究表明:总体看,全球制造业生产网络的成长性与连通性先升后降、凝聚性趋于稳固、层级性具有明显的"马太效应",这一演化特征受世界各国全球化进程、要素配给、基建水平、地理区位等因素影响。分产品看,生产要素替代性越低、附加值越高的制造业产品生产网络的演化速率较快、参与门槛较高;而生产要素替代性越高、附加值越低的制造业产品生产网络的演化速率较慢、地域关联较强。

The study used trade data of 83 categories of semi-finished or finished products from 176 countries and regions in the UN Comtrade database. Then, the social network analysis was conducted to establish the different types of global manufacturing production networks in 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. According to each network topology index, the participation index of the global manufacturing production network of intra-product specialization was established.Next, the influencing factors of network evolution were analyzed by constructing the econometric model of panel data. To sum up, the conclusions can be stated as follows. The overall growth and connectivity of the global manufacturing production network first rise and then fall,while the cohesion of the overall network tends to be stable, and the hierarchy of the network has obvious "Matthew effect". The above evolution characteristics are influenced by the globalization, factor, infrastructure and location of each country in the world. Analysis from different product networks, the network which is lower factor replacement rate and higher added value has faster evolution rate and higher threshold to participation. Meanwhile, the network which is higher factor replacement rate and lower added value has slower evolution rate and stronger locational relevance.