基于网络规模迭加法潍坊市潍城区MSM人群规模估计

Estimation on population size of men who have sex with men in a district of Weifang city, Shandong province using network scale-up method

目的基于网络规模迭加法(NSUM)估计山东省潍坊市潍城区男男性行为者(MSM)人群规模,为艾滋病高危人群的防控提供理论依据。方法于2018年8—12月采用多阶段随机抽样方法在潍坊市潍城区抽取3185名社区居民进行问卷调查,应用NSUM估计潍城区一般人群的社交网络规模(c),并根据c和调查对象认识的MSM人数及认可程度、规模比和传递率估计和校正潍城区MSM人群的规模。结果通过稳定性分析,经性别、年龄、文化程度、婚姻状况、居住时间的校正及异常值剔除后使用NSUM估计潍城区MSM人群规模为1036人,经规模比和传递率对MSM规模的校正后,最终估计结果为4054人。结论采用NSUM对潍城区MSM人群规模进行估计具有推广价值。

Objective To estimate the population size of men who have sex with men(MSM)in a district of Weifang city,Shandong province using network scale-up method(NSUM)and to provide evidences for developing intervention programs in populations at high-risk of AIDS.Methods We conducted a questionnaire survey among 3185 permanent residents aged 18–60 years selected with multistage random sampling in Weicheng district of Weifang city from August to December 2018.The size of social network in general population of the district was estimated using NSUM;then the population size of MSM was estimated based on the estimated social network size and the recognition degree-weighted number of MSM the participants familiar with;and the estimated MSM population size was adjusted by ratios of the demographics-specific populations and the transmission rate of relevant information.Results The estimated number of MSM in the district is 1036 base on the results of stability analysis,adjustmenting for gender,age,education level,marital status,residing time,and elimination of outliers.After further adjustment for ratios of the demographics-specific populations and the transmission rate of relevant information,the estimated number of MSM is 4054.Conclusion Network scale-up method could be applied in the estimation of population size of men who have sex with men in a general population.