退休冲击与城镇居民家庭消费--基于断点回归设计的实证研究

Retirement Shock and Urban Household Consumption: An Empirical Study Based on the Breakpoint Regression Design

基于中国健康与养老追踪调查数据和断点回归设计,对退休冲击的消费效应的研究表明,退休使家庭非耐用品消费显著降低31.2%;剔除与工作相关的消费、在家食物消费及休闲文教娱乐消费支出后,其他非耐用品消费没有显著减少。退休冲击使得家庭消费结构发生明显改变,医疗保健支出显著增加,非基础性消费比例显著增加,这有助于优化消费结构。进一步研究发现,退休冲击对不同消费水平和消费结构的家庭存在明显的异质性影响。退休冲击对医疗保健消费分布左尾处和非基础性消费分布右尾处的家庭影响更加显著。因此,建议制定更加健全的社会保障体系,促进老年人消费结构优化升级,满足老年人口多层次物质文化消费需要。

Based on the data of Chi na Health and Pension Tracking Survey and the breakpoint regression design, this paper conducts a study of the impact of retirement shock on household consumption in China. The results show that retirement can significantly reduce household non-durable goods consumption by 31.2%. After removing work-related consumption, home food consumption and expenditures on leisure, culture, education and entertainment, the other non-durable goods consumption has not decreased significantly. The retirement shock leads to a significant change on the household consumption structure. It makes a significant increase in health care spending, and a significant increase in the proportion of non-basic consumption, which helps to optimize the consumption structure.The results of further research indicate that retirement shock has significant heterogeneous effects on households with different levels of consumption and different consumption structures. The impact of retirement shock on the families at the left end of the distribution of health care consumption and the families at the right end of the distribution of non-basic consumption is even more significant. Therefore, it is recommended to formulate a more robust social security system, promote the upgrading of the consumption structure of the elderly, and meet the multi-level material and cultural consumption needs of the elderly.