利率市场化进程中的货币政策调控转型

Transformation of Monetary Policy Regulation in the Process of Interest Rate Liberalization

基于利率市场化进程中对货币政策调控转型进行的系统梳理,以我国利率管制放开进程为自然实验,使用2005-2018年1044家上市公司微观数据进行的分阶段实证检验,研究发现:货币政策调控在贷款利率管制放松前呈现出明显的基准利率调控特征,在贷款利率管制放松后呈现出基准利率调控和市场利率调控并行的转型特征,在存款利率管制放松后呈现出货币数量调控和市场利率调控并行的转型特征。考虑到我国特殊的经济金融环境,利率市场化进程中货币政策调控转型应沿着数量型调控调整和价格型调控完善的双向改革思路进行,数量型货币政策应注重由传统需求管理工具向结构调整工具调整,价格型货币政策应着重完善贷款基础利率报价并培育市场利率的形成和传导机制,以维护金融稳定和经济平稳增长。

Based on the systematic combin g of the monetary policy regulation transformation in the process of interest rate liberalization, this paper takes the process of China’s interest rate deregulation as a natural experiment and makes use of the micro-data of 1044 listed companies in the period of 2005-2018 to conduct a phased empirical test. The findings show that the monetary policy regulation presented obvious characteristics of benchmark interest rate regulation before the deregulation of the loan interest rate, while after the deregulation of the loan interest rate, it presents the transformation characteristics of paralleled benchmark interest rate regulation and market interest rate regulation, and after the deregulation of deposit interest rate it presents the transformation characteristics of paralleled monetary quantitative regulation and market interest rate regulation. Taking China’s special economic and financial environment into consideration, the transformation of monetary policy regulation in the process of interest rate liberalization should be carried out along the two-way reform ideas of quantitative adjustment regulation and price adjustment perfection. The quantity-based monetary policy should pay full attention to the adjustment from the traditional demand management tool to the structural adjustment tool;the price-based monetary policy should focus on improving the quotation of LPR and cultivating the formation and transmission mechanism of market interest rate, so as to maintain financial stability and stable economic growth.