江西省2013―2018年肾综合征出血热空间自相关分析

Analysis of spatial autocorrelation of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jiangxi Province from 2013 to 2018

目的对江西省2013―2018年肾综合征出血热(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,HFRS)进行空间自相关分析,探索其空间分布特征。方法利用Excel 2003软件和SPSS 23.0软件对HFRS发病数据进行搜集整理,运用ArcGIS 10.2软件制作省级县区矢量地图,采用空间自相关统计方法对HFRS监测数据在县区级尺度上进行全局及局部聚集性分析。结果2013―2018年江西省累计报告HFRS 3861例,年均发病率为1.41/10万;60岁以上人群发病率最高,为2.22/10万;全局空间自相关分析发现2013―2018年Moran’s I系数在0.233~0.343之间(均有Moran’s I>0,均有P<0.05);局部空间自相关分析显示HFRS发病率呈现出"高-高"、"低-高"、"低-低"三种空间聚集性模式,且均有统计学意义(均有P≤0.05),其中"高-高"聚集区主要集中在宜春市中东部,与高发病率地区描述性分析一致;吉安市、赣州市则表现为"低-低"聚集。结论江西省HFRS发病率整体呈现空间聚集性,"高-高"聚集区主要集中在宜春市的宜丰县、高安市、上高县和奉新县,需重点防控。

Objective Spatial autocorrelation analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Jiangxi Province from 2013 to 2018 was carried out to explore its spatial distribution characteristics.Methods Excel 2003 and SPSS 23.0 software were used to collect and sort out the data of HFRS,using ArcGIS 10.2 software to make the vector map of provincial county and district,and using spatial autocorrelation statistical method to analyse the global and local aggregation of HFRS monitoring data at county-level scale.Results From 2013 to 2018,there were 3861 HFRS cases,and the incidence rate was 1.41/100000.The incidence rate in the elderly aged 60 and above was 2.22/100000,which was the highest one among all groups.Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran’s I coefficients from 2013 to 2018 were in 0.233-0.343(all Moran’s I>0,all P<0.05).Local spatial autocorrelation analysis suggested that the incidence rate of HFRS presented three spatial aggregation patterns:"high-high","low-high","low-low",all the distribution patterns were statistically significant(all P≤0.05).The"high-high"clustering areas were mainly concentrated in the east-central of Yichun City,which was consistent with descriptive analysis of the high incidence area.Counties or districts that located in Jian City and Ganzhou City presented the"low-low"relation.Conclusions The incidence rate of HFRS in Jiangxi Province appeared a significant spatial aggregation distribution.Yifeng County,Gaoan County,Shanggao County and Fengxin County in Yichun City were"high-high"clustering areas,indicating that it is necessary to strengthen the work in prevention and control.