2009―2018年银川市流行性感冒流行特征及发病趋势预测

Analysis of epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of influenza in Yinchuan City from 2009 to 2018

目的分析2009―2018年银川市流行性感冒(简称流感)的发病情况及流行病学特征,并预测发病趋势,为流感的防控提供科学依据。方法采用描述性研究的方法,描述2009―2018年银川市流感的流行病学特征,并用自回归移动平均混合模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)预测2019年1月―2020年6月流感的发病趋势。结果2009―2018年银川市流感共报告2254例,年均发病率为11.22/10万,整体呈下降趋势(χ2趋势=28.95,P<0.001)。流感在秋冬季节高发,发病高峰为11月―次年1月。西夏区发病率最高(504例,18.34/10万),贺兰县最低(75例,3.59/10万)。男性发病率高于女性(11.86/10万vs10.56/10万,χ2=7.580,P<0.001);流感在各年龄段均有分布,主要为0~5岁年龄段(528例,23.43%);以学生(776例,34.43%)、散居儿童(471例,20.90%)、农民(240例,10.65%)为主。ARIMA模型预测结果显示,2019年1月―2020年6月银川市流感发病率与2018年持平。结论2009―2018年银川市流感发病率整体呈下降趋势。西夏区为流感重点防控地区,学生、散居儿童、农民为易感人群,提示应更加关注易感人群的健康,加强对高发地区及5岁以下儿童流感的监测与管理。

Objective To analyze the incidence and epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Yinchuan City from 2009 to 2018,and predict the incidence trend,so as to provide scientific evidence for prevention and control of influenza.Methods Descriptive study was used to describe the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Yinchuan City from 2009 to 2018,and autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA model)was used to forecast the incidence trend of influenza from January 2019 to June 2020.Results A total of 2254 cases of influenza were reported in Yinchuan City from 2009 to 2018.The average annual incidence rate was 11.22/100000.The incidence of influenza showed an overall downward trend(χ2Trend=28.95,P<0.001).Influenza occurred most frequently in autumn and winter.The peak months were from November to January of the following year.The highest incidence region was Xixia district(504 cases,18.34/100000),and the lowest one was He Lan county(75 cases,3.59/100000).The incidence of influenza was higher in men than in women(11.86/100000 vs 10.56/100000,χ2=7.580,P<0.001).It was distributed in all age groups.The main age rang was 0-5 years old(528 cases,23.43%).Most cases were students(776 cases,34.43%),scattered children(471 cases,20.90%)and farmers(240 cases,10.65%).The ARIMA model showed that the incidence of influenza in Yinchuan City from January 2019 to June 2020 was the same as that in 2018.Conclusions The incidence of influenza in Yinchuan City decreased from 2009 to 2018.Xixia district was the key prevention and control area of influenza.Students,scattered children and farmers were the vulnerable groups,which suggest that we should pay more attention to the health of vulnerable groups,strengthen surveillance and management of influenza in high-risk areas and children under the age of five.