区域清洁取暖适应性发展模式决策方法

The Decision-making Method of Adaptive Development Mode of Clean Heating Considering Regional Characteristics

为了更好地满足冬季清洁取暖用户需求、保障清洁取暖工程实施过程中各方主体利益、提高供暖负荷与电网的匹配性,提出了一种区域清洁取暖适应性发展模式决策方法。首先调研了实际清洁取暖工程实施现状,分析了现阶段常见的供热方式和设备类型。其次综合考虑各主体利益、建筑类型特点、用户用能习惯及地理气候条件等因素的影响,构建了涵盖电网、用户和社会三方主体的区域清洁取暖模式适应性综合评价指标体系,并提出了指标的计算方法。在此基础上,应用层次分析法及变异系数法对各指标进行赋权,并采用加权评分法建立了适应性决策模型。最后以北方地区某乡镇的实际数据为算例,决策出了4种备选模式中最适合该地区发展的清洁取暖模式,验证了所提方法的有效性,可为后续北方地区大规模推广清洁取暖提供理论指导和实践依据。

In order to meet the needs of clean heating users in winter,guarantee the interests of all parties in the clean heating project,and improve the matching of heating load and power grid,a decision-making method of adaptive development mode of clean heating was proposed with considering regional characteristics.Firstly,the actual implementation status of clean heating project was investigated and the common heating modes and equipment types at this stage was analyzed.Secondly,considering the influence of the interests of each party,the characteristics of the building types,and the habits of the users to use energy and the geographical and climatic conditions,a comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed.The system was used to evaluate the adaptation between regional characteristics and clean heating development mode covering the regional characteristics of power grid,users and society.At the same time,the calculation method of this index was proposed.On this basis,the analytic hierarchy process and coefficient of variation were used to set the weights of the indexes.Then,a decision-making model was established by using weighted scoring method.Finally,the optimal clean heating project development mode in four alternative modes was determined by taking the actual data of a township in the northern China as an example.The validity of the method was verified.The research can provide theoretical guidance and practical basis for the large-scale promotion of clean heating project in North China.