基于Hybrid-Maize模型的河北省山前平原夏玉米产量潜力评价

Evaluation of the Yield Potential of Summer Maize on the Piedmont Plain of Hebei Province by Using the Hybrid-Maize Model

应用Hybrid-Maize模型分析1984~2017年气候变化对山前平原区20世纪80年代品种与当前主栽品种产量潜力的影响。结果表明,20世纪80年代品种的产量潜力平均为10 890 kg/hm^2,目前主栽品种的产量潜力平均为16 220 kg/hm^2,较20世纪80年代品种提升了48.9%。在此期间,研究区域气温呈增加趋势,温度每升高1℃,20世纪80年代玉米品种和当前品种的产量潜力分别下降638、591 kg/hm^2。夏玉米品种的生育期太阳辐射总量从1984~1994年呈下降趋势,1994~2017年呈波动维持的状况,太阳辐射每下降100 MJ/m^2,20世纪80年代品种产量潜力下降330 kg/hm^2,当前主栽品种下降480 kg/hm^2。降雨量呈增加趋势,但玉米产量与降雨量间没有显著相关关系。生产上可以通过选用长生育期、耐高温品种等方式减少气候变化对产量潜力的影响。总体来看,当前品种的产量潜力更容易受到气候变化的影响。

Hybrid-Maize model was used to evaluate the yield potential changes in 1984-2017 on the Pied-mont plain of Hebei province. The model simulated results showed the average yield potential for the varieties of the1980 s was 10 890 kg/ha, while the currently used variety was 16 220 kg/ha, increased by about 48.9%. A warmingtrend in the maize growth period was found, the average temperature increasing by 0.22℃/10 a for the varieties in the1980 s, and 0.69℃/10 a for currently used variety. When the temperature increase 1℃, the yield potential for the vari-eties of the 1980 s and currently used will decrease 638 kg/ha and 591 kg/ha, respectively. The total solar radiationfor the two maize varieties’ growth period had the trend of decreasing from 1984 to 1994, and then had the trend ofup and down fluctuations and keeping as a plateau in1994-2017. When the total solar radiation decreased 100 MJ/m^2,the yield for the varieties of the 1980 s and current used will decrease 330 kg/ha and 480 kg/ha, respectively. Themaize growth period precipitation has the trend of increasing, but there were no significant correlations betweenyield potential with rainfall. The climate change effects on maize yield potential could be improved by changing vari-eties with longer growth periods and high-temperature resistance. In general, the yield potential of currently usedmaize variety was more sensitive to climate change.