最优权值确定的区域物流需求组合预测方法

The combined forecasting of regional logistics demand based on optimal weight

为了引导物流产业走出高成本的瓶颈期,促进物流产业扩大集散中心规模,以提高区域物流的需求量预测精度为目标,提出了最优权值确定的区域物流需求组合预测方法。首先采用多种方法对区域物流需求量进行预测,然后确定各种方法预测结果的权值,并通过加权组合得到区域物流需求最终预测结果,最后进行了区域物流需求组合预测的仿真实验。结果表明,组合预测方法集成了多种独立预测模型的优点,使得预测的效率、准确度均得到了明显的提升。

In order to guide the logistics industry out of the bottleneck period of high cost and promote the scale expansion of the distribution center of the logistics industry,this paper aims at improving the prediction accuracy of regional logistics demand and proposes a combined forecasting method of regional logistics demand with the optimal weight.It uses a variety of methods to forecast the regional logistics demand,determines their weights and gets the final forecast of regional logistics demand through weighted combination.It takes the simulation experiment results of regional logistics demand combination forecast,shows that the method integrates the advantages of multiple independent prediction models,the efficiency,accuracy and integrity of regional logistics demand combination forecast,the physical properties have obvious advantages.