基于MaxEnt模型的海南岛野生坡垒潜在适宜生境分布预测

Prediction of Potential Suitable Habitat Distribution of Wild Hopea hainanensis in Hainan Island based on MaxEnt Model

[目的]预测坡垒(Hopea hainanensis)在我国的潜在适宜生境分布区域。[方法]选择海南岛作为研究区域,基于有效的地理分布数据及筛选后的环境变量,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)与地理信息系统(GIS)对海南岛野生坡垒的潜在适宜分布区域进行了预测,进而以刀切法(Jackknife)分析影响其分布的主要环境因子,并采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)对预测结果进行检验。[结果]坡垒潜在适宜生境(存在概率>0.50)达海南岛陆地面积的6.44%,为野外坡垒回归试验提供依据;主要集中于海南岛南部、西南部与中部山区等地,除此以外海南岛东南也有零散的潜在适宜生境;年平均温度、最暖月份最高气温、最冷月最低温度、湿季平均温度、最干季平均温度、最热季节的平均温度、最冷季平均温度和海拔因子这8个因子对海南岛坡垒适宜分布的影响最大。[结论]AUC值为0.942,说明模型预测效果良好。

[Objective]The aim of this study was to predict the potential habitat distribution of Hopea hainensis in China.[Method]Hainan Island was chosen as the study area,based on the effective geographical distribution data and the screened environmental variables,the potential suitable distribution area of the wild Hopea hainanensis of Hainan island was predicted by using MaxEnt and GIS,then,the main environmental factors influencing the distribution of the knife were analyzed by Jackknife,and the predicted results were examined by ROC.[Result]The results showed that the potential suitable habitat(Probability of existence>0.50)reached 6.44%of the land area of Hainan Island,mainly concentrated in the south,It provided the basis for the regression test of Hopea hainanensis southwest and central mountainous areas of Hainan island.Besides,there were scattered potential suitable habitats in the southeast of Hainan Island.The annual mean temperature,the maximum temperature in the warmest month,the minimum temperature in the coldest month,the mean temperature in the wet season,the mean temperature in the driest season,the mean temperature in the hottest season,the mean temperature in the coldest season and the factor of elevation had the greatest influence on the suitable distribution of Hopea hainanensis in Hainan island.[Conclusion]The AUC value was 0.942,which showed that the model was effective.