豫东地区区域性中心医院门诊量变化分析及预测

Analysis and forecast of outpatient quantity change in regional central hospitals of Eastern Henan

利用Holt-Winter分析法并加入季节指数,对经济欠发达的豫东地区区域性中心医院门诊量变化情况进行分析和预测,得出了与以往研究结果截然相反的季节性周期变化结论,认为区域经济发展特点是门诊量季节性周期变化的新的影响因素,指出了人们的健康意识普遍提高,提出了要进一步深化分级诊疗改革、医疗机构根据门诊量季节性规律做好资源配置的建议。

This research uses Holt-Winter analysis method and seasonal index to analyze and forecast the changes of outpatient service volume in regional central hospitals in the underdeveloped Eastern Henan Province.It draws a conclusion that the seasonal periodic change is contrary to the previous research results.It is believed that the characteristic of regional economic development is the new influencing factors of seasonal periodic change of outpatient service volume.It also points out that people's health awareness has generally improved,and put forward suggestions to further deepen the reform of graded diagnosis and treatment,and to make good allocation of resources in medical institutions according to the seasonal law of outpatient volume.