考虑多因素的地区综合法推求设计洪峰流量——以西双版纳地区为例

Design peak flow estimation by regional comprehensive method considering multiple factors:case of Xishuangbanna,Yunnan Province

为提高设计洪水的计算精度,建立了考虑多因素的地区综合公式推求设计洪峰流量。在西双版纳及周边区域内选取了10座水文站作为地区综合分析的参证站,提出了考虑流域面积、暴雨量、地形条件等多因素的地区综合法,并利用幂函数回归分析与最小二乘法推求出不同地形条件下设计洪峰流量的二元幂函数公式。结果表明:考虑多因素的地区综合法较考虑单因素的地区综合法计算的洪峰流量均值、C v最大误差分别下降了约52%,8%。这是因为多因素地区综合法中考虑了暴雨及地形条件这两个影响洪峰流量的主要因素,使得其计算成果更具合理性。因此,利用考虑多因素的地区综合公式推求西双版纳地区设计洪峰流量更加合理,可提高计算精度。研究成果可应用于其他无水文资料地区。

In order to improve the calculation accuracy of design flood,a regional comprehensive formula considering multiple factors was proposed to estimate the design peak flow.In this paper,we selected 10 hydrological stations in Xishuangbanna region as reference stations for regional comprehensive analysis,and proposed a regional comprehensive method considering the basin area,rainstorm,topographic conditions and other factors.Then,the power function formula of designed peak discharge under different topographic conditions was derived by power function regression analysis and least square method.By comparing the calculated value with the measured value of peak flow and Cv,it was found that the maximum error of the peak low and Cv obtained from the regional comprehensive method considering multiple factors were reduced by 52%and 8%respectively.The reason was that both rainstorm and topographic conditions were key factors that influenced peak flow.Therefore,regional comprehensive method considering multiple factors could be used in Xishuangbanna region to improve the accuracy of design peak flow.The research results could be applied to other areas without hydrological data.