我国货币政策传导的产业结构效应研究——基于DAG-SVAR模型的分析

On Industrial Structure Effect of Monetary Policy Transmission in China——Analysis Based on DAG-SVAR Model

货币政策传导存在明显的产业结构效应,因而对产业发展具有调控功能。央行的货币政策能够通过信贷、利率、汇率及资产价格等传导渠道对我国三次产业的比重产生以下影响:利率上升会导致第二、第三产业的比重降低,且第二产业比重的降幅大于第三产业;增加银行信贷短期内会使第三产业比重上升,第二、第一产业比重降低;汇率上升则导致第三产业比重上升,第二产业比重下降;房地产市场价格上升会引起第三产业的比重上升,第一产业比重下降;股票价格对三次产业占比的影响不太明显。因此,货币政策应关注其对于不同产业、不同规模企业层面的非对称性,央行在政策上应提高企业对利率变动的敏感性和信贷资源效率,合理运用汇率调控工具,更好发挥股票市场的资源配置作用。

The transmission of monetary policy has obvious industrial structure effect and plays a regulatory role in industrial development. The monetary policy of the People’s Bank of China can make different influences on the proportion of China’s three industries through the transmission channels of credit,interest rate,exchange rate and asset price. The increase of interest rate will lead to the decrease of the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries,and the reduction in the proportion of secondary industry is obviously larger than that of tertiary industry. The increase of bank credit will increase the proportion of tertiary industry in the short term,and decrease the proportion of secondary and primary industries. The rising exchange rate will lead to the rising proportion of the tertiary industry and the declining proportion of the secondary industry. Higher prices in the real estate market will increase the proportion of the tertiary industry and decrease the proportion of the primary industry. Stock price has not clear influence on the proportion of three industries.Therefore,monetary policy should pay attention to the asymmetric characteristics at the different industries and enterprises with different scale. The People’s Bank of China should improve sensitivity of enterprises to the change of interest rate and credit resources efficiency,reasonably use exchange rate control tools to play the role of stock market in the resource allocation better.