摘要
对新一代华东区域数值预报系统(SMS-WARMS V2.0:Shanghai Meteorological Service WRF ADAS Real-Time Modeling System 2.0)降水预报产品进行云南区域的预报效果检验,同时与欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式EC、云南区域WRF(the Weather Research and Forecasting Model)数值预报系统和云南省台预报的预报效果进行对比分析。结果表明:从云南省全省性大雨天气个例看,SMS-WARMS V2.0能够报出强降水的主要雨带,整体预报的降水落区较好,比较接近实况,但相对其它2种数值预报产品降水强度有偏强的特点。从累计平均的降水评分检验结果看,SMS-WARMS V2.0的预报效果,24 h中雨效果略差于其它2种数值预报产品,其它量级与其它2种数值预报产品相当。48 h预报效果除了小雨量级,其它量级预报效果优于其他2种数值预报产品。相比48 h的降水预报产品对预报员的参考性较24 h的参考性好。
The precipitation forecast effect of Shanghai Meteorological Service WRF ADAS Real-Time Modeling System 2.0(SMS-WARMS V2.0)was tested and compared with the global model of the European medium-term Weather Forecast Center(EC),the regional WRF numerical forecasting system of Yunnan and the forecast effect of Yunnan station.The results show that SMS-WARMS V2.0 can forecast the main rain belt of heavy precipitation,and the precipitation falling area predicted as a whole was better,which was close to the observation,but it has the characteristics of strong precipitation intensity for the other two kinds of numerical forecast products.From the cumulative average precipitation score test results,it can be seen that the prediction effect of SMS-WARMS V2.0 is slightly worse than that of the other two numerical prediction products in 24 h moderate rain,and the other orders of magnitude are similar to the other two numerical prediction products.The 48 h prediction effect is better than the other two numerical prediction products except the light rain.Compared with the 48 h precipitation forecast products,the reference property of the forecast staff is better than that of 24 h precipitation forecast products.
作者
李璠
王曼
张瑾文
LI Fan;WANG Man;ZHANG Jin-wen(Chuxiong Meteorological Bureau of Yunnan Province,Chuxiong 675000,Yunnan,China;Yunnan Institute of Meteorology,Kunming 650034,Yunnan,China)
出处
《云南地理环境研究》
2020年第3期34-40,共7页
Yunnan Geographic Environment Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“西行台风影响下云南强降水天气过程的机理研究(41805037)”
云南省科技惠民项目“云南强对流灾害性天气短时临近预警系统研究(2016RA096)”
中国气象局预报员专项项目(CMAYBY2018-069).
