尾矿坝地震动力响应可靠度分析

Reliability analysis of seismic response of tailings dam

为客观准确的评价尾矿坝的稳定性,在动力稳定性分析理论和可靠度分析框架下,采用蒙特卡罗抽样技术产生输入参数样本,将输入参数特性值分别赋给尾矿坝稳定性有限元分析模型,编写MATLAB程序与商业有限元软件GEOSTUDIO实行对接,将有限元软件当做黑匣子直接调用,进行一体化尾矿坝边坡稳定性有限元批处理分析.输入地震波,采用动力有限元方法,比传统的拟静力法更能反映出尾矿坝的动力特性.最后应用到实际尾矿坝工程说明了该方法的有效性,结果表明,该方法可以真实地模拟地震作用对尾矿坝稳定性的影响,并使用蒙特卡罗法计算10000次,得出尾矿坝的失效概率,所用方法简单实用并且具有较高的计算效率,对尾矿坝安全、保护下游生命财产安全和周边环境具有重要的意义.

In order to objectively evaluate the stability of tailings dam,under the framework of dynamic stability analysis theory and limit equilibrium analysis,monte carlo sampling technique was used to generate input parameter samples,and the characteristic values of input parameters were assigned to the tailing dam stability finite element analysis model respectively.The finite element software is directly called as the black box to carry out the integrated finite element batch analysis of the slope stability of tailings dam.The dynamic finite element method is used to reflect the dynamic characteristics of tailings dam better than the traditional quasi-static method.Tailings dam is applied to actual engineering is given to prove the effectiveness of the method,the results show that this method can truly simulate seismic action effect on the stability of tailings dam,and using monte carlo method to calculate 10000 times,it is concluded that the tailings dam failure probability,the method is simple and practical and has high computing efficiency,the downstream of the tailings dam safety,protecting life and property safety and the surrounding environment has important significance.