2050年上海大都市圈海平面上升影响预估研究

Study on the prediction of sea level rise impact in Shanghai metropolitan area in 2050

为了研究未来海平面上升对上海大都市圈的影响程度及其空间分布范围,以2050年为时间节点,构建由潜在损害性、脆弱性和抵御性为决策层维度的海平面上升影响预估评价指标体系,并通过BP神经网络模拟法、CA-Markov空间模拟法和前移回归分析等方法对该地区2050年相关数据进行模拟,以此预估2050年上海大都市圈的海平面上升影响。研究表明:1)2050年上海大都市圈约有21500 km^2的用地表现为中度以上影响等级,约占该区域面积的40%,主要为距海岸线0~10 km地区、长江南岸0~15 km地区、长江北岸0~10 km地区以及太湖沿岸等地区。2)同时以行政区划为单元进行分析:舟山市、上海市所受海平面上升影响较大;苏州市、南通市和嘉兴市则表现为中度影响;无锡市、宁波市、常州市和湖州市表现为低度影响。

In order to study the impact degree and spatial distribution range of sea level rise on Shanghai metropolitan area in the future,a system of sea level rise impact prediction and evaluation indexes was constructed with the year 2050 as the time node,and with the potential damaging,vulnerability and resilience as the dimensions of decision-making level.The methods of BP neural network simulation,CA Markov spatial simulation and forward regression analysis were used to predict the related data to analyze the impact of sea level rise in Shanghai metropolitan area in 2050.The results show that:1)In 2050,there will be 21500 km^2 of land use in Shanghai metropolitan area,which will show moderate or higher impact level,accounting for 40%of the area,mainly in the areas 0~10 km away from the coastline,0~15 km away from the South Bank of the Yangtze River,0~10 km away from the North Bank of the Yangtze River and Taihu Lake.2)According to the analysis of administrative divisions,Zhoushan and Shanghai will be greatly impacted by sea level rise;Suzhou,Nantong and Jiaxing will be moderately impacted;Wuxi,Ningbo,Changzhou and Huzhou will be moderately impacted.