浙江省海宁市1977—2016年女性乳腺癌发病分析

Incidence Trend of Female Breast Cancer in Haining City,1977—2016

[目的]了解1977—2016年海宁市女性乳腺癌40年发病动态、流行特征和变化规律,为制定乳腺癌防控策略与措施提供科学依据。[方法]应用海宁市肿瘤登记系统病例报告资料,计算女性乳腺癌粗发病率、中标率、累积率、截缩率、年度变化百分比(APC)等指标,并划分不同时间段对各年龄组发病率作比较。[结果]乳腺癌发病2392例,粗发病率为18.97/10万,中标率为11.80/10万,占女性恶性肿瘤病例的13.23%,居女性癌症的第2位,仅次于肺癌。从不同时间段年龄组发病率高峰看:1977—1986年70~岁组为高峰,发病率为30.00/10万;1987—1996年50~岁组为高峰,发病率为27.76/10万;1997—2006年45~岁组为高峰,发病率为40.04/10万;2007—2016年50~岁组为高峰,发病率达到80.37/10万。从年度变化分析看,发病率从1977年的5.00/10万,到2016年上升到56.88/10万。1977—1996年20年间发病率和中标率APC分别为2.3%(95%CI:0.7%~4.0%)和0.5%(95%CI:-1.3%~2.3%),1997—2016年后20年分别为10.1%(95%CI:8.2%~12.1%)和10.5%(95%CI:8.4%~12.6%)。[结论]女性乳腺癌呈快速上升态势,应进一步加强乳腺癌的预防控制工作。

[Purpose] To analyze the trends of female breast cancer incidence from 1977 to 2016 in Haining. [Methods] The data of female breast cancer were collected from Haining cancer registration. The crude incidence,ASR China rate,cumulative rate,truncation rate,percentage of annual change(APC%) of breast cancer in women were calculated. The incidence rates of each age group were compared in different time periods. [Results] There were total 2392 cases of female breast cancer reported during 1977 to 2016 in Haining with a crude incidence of 18.97/105. The incidence ASR China was 11.80/105,accounting for 13.23% of all cases of malignant tumors in women and ranking the second. The peak incidence was 30.00/105 in age group 70-year from 1977 to1986;that was 27.76/105 in the age group 50-years from 1987 to 1996;that was 40.04/105 in the age group 45-years from 1997 to 2006;that was 80.37/105 in age group 50-years from 2007 to2016. The incidence rose from 5.00/105 in 1977 to 56.88/105 in 2016. During 1977 to 1996,the APC for crude incidence and ASR China were 2.3%(95% CI:0.7% ~4.0%) and 0.5%(-1.3% ~2.3%),respectively;while during 1997 to 2016 the APC of crude rate and ASR China was 10.1%(8.2%~12.1%) and 10.5%(8.4%~12.6%),respectively. [Conclusion] There is a rapidly rising trend of female breast cancer incidence in Hangning in last 40 years,and prevention and control of female breast cancer should be strengthened.