2020年第一季度黑龙江省农产品市场价格及分析

Market Price and Analysis of Agricultural Products in Heilongjiang Province in the First Quarter of 2020

为掌握黑龙江省农产品价格变动规律,基于中国农业科学院信息中心研发的"农信采"设备采集到的2020年第一季度黑龙江省农产品价格数据,对农产品价格的季度数据进行了时间序列分析,并对影响黑龙江省农产品价格波动的因素进行了分析。结果表明:黑龙江省一季度农产品价格波动较频繁,与往年相比大部分农产品价格上涨。其中波动剧烈的为蔬菜类、畜禽及肉类、蛋类、水果类、水产类,而粮食、食用油等耐用消费品的市场价格波动趋势平缓。农产品供应链受国际国内新冠疫情的影响以及基数效应影响,预计2020年二季度黑龙江省农产品价格同比增速将呈下降趋势,但短期内仍将震荡偏弱运行。

In order to grasp the law of agricultural product price changes in Heilongjiang Province,based on the price data of Heilongjiang Province in the first quarter of 2020 collected by the‘Advanced agricultural product market information collection equipment’developed by the Information Center of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,a time series analysis of the quarterly data of agricultural product prices was carried out.We analyzed the factors that affect the price fluctuation of agricultural products in Heilongjiang Province.The results showed that the price of agricultural products in Heilongjiang Province fluctuated frequently in the first quarter,and the prices of most agricultural products increased compared with previous years.Among them,the arket prices of vegetables,livestock,poultry and meat,eggs,fruits,aquatic products,grains,edible oil and other durable consumer goods fluctuate steadily.Due to the impact of the international and domestic the novel coronavirus epidemic on the agricultural product supply chain and the base effect,it is expected that the year-onyear growth rate of agricultural product prices in Heilongjiang Province will show a downward trend in the second quarter of 2020,but it will continue to fluctuate slightly in the short term.