环境规制对中国房地产业绿色发展的影响分析——基于31个省份的面板数据

IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENT REGULATIONS ON GREEN DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA’S REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY BASED ON PANEL DATA OF 31 PROVINCES

伴随房地产业的蓬勃发展,大量环境问题日益突出,但现有文献在测算房地产业全要素生产率时,基本忽视了环境污染问题,从而无法反映房地产业真实发展水平。本文选取污染物排放量作为非理想产出,运用基于方向距离函数的Malmquist-Luenberger指数法对中国31个省份的房地产业绿色全要素生产率(green total factor productivity,GTFP)进行测度,并通过建立面板数据模型对影响生产率的多种因素加以分析。研究表明:2008—2017年,我国房地产业GTFP总体呈上升态势,且增速缓慢,东部地区的房地产业GTFP增长速度总体高于经济水平相对落后的中西部地区,中部地区的增速则与全国均值基本持平,整体态势保持平稳;技术进步所引发的"增长效应"是生产率提升的主要动力源泉,而技术效率所带来的"追赶效应"则影响较小;从现实因素考虑,房地产业发展水平与投资回报率对生产率的增长具有正向推动作用,但资本强度与生产率的增长呈现负相关,劳动生产率对其则无明显统计意义上的相关性,环境规制和生产率之间大致呈倒"U"型关系,合理的环境规制所带来的创新补偿效应大于成本负向效应,因此"波特假说"在中国房地产业成立。

The blooming real estate industry in China leads to vast environmental issues,which has been ignored by existing references while measuring the total factor productivity of real estate industry.It can’t reflect the real development of China’s real estate industry.This paper selects pollution discharge as non-ideal output and uses Malmquist-Luenberger index to measure their green total element factor productivity(GTFP)of China’s real estate industry in 31 provinces and establishes panel data model to analyze the multiple factors of productivity.The GTFP of China’s real estate industry shows a slowly rising trend during 2008 to 2017,higher in eastern China than the western China,and the central China keeps the same pace with the nation’s average,growing effect induced by technical progress is the major drive to productivity,pursuing effect from technical efficiency has little influence.Actually,growth of productivity is positively pushed by developing level and return on investment of real estate industry,but negatively by capital intensity,nothing related to labor productivity.Environmental regulations displays an upended U with productivity,indicating innovative compensation effect induced by rational environmental regulations overcomes the cost negative effect.Hence,‘Porter Hypothesis’applies to China’s real estate industry.