农产品四级供应链的系统动力学仿真研究

Research on System Dynamics Simulation of Agricultural Product Four-level Supply Chain

为提高农产品供应链的运营效率,对农产品流通过程进行分析,利用系统动力学理论对农产品种植和流通过程的要素进行界定,确定农产品四级供应链系统的边界,建立因果关系图。在此基础上构建农产品四级供应链系统动力学流图,进行方程和参数设定,仿真模拟农产品四级供应链的运营过程,选取订货率和库存两个较为典型的变量对仿真结果进行分析。研究结果表明:库存调整周期与库存覆盖周期的比例会影响牛鞭效应的增减趋势;腐败率对收购商的牛鞭效应影响最大;采用大型种植集团方式发展现代化农业效果较好。

In order to improve the operational efficiency of agricultural product supply chain,the system dynamics theory is used to define the elements of the agricultural product planting and distribution process,determine the boundaries of the agricultural product four-level supply chain system,and establish a cause-and-effect diagram.Accordingly,a dynamic flowchart of agricultural product four level supply chain system is constructed,equations and parameters are set,and the operation process of the four-level supply chain of agricultural products is simulated.And two typical variables,order rate and inventory are selected to analyze the simulation results.The research shows that proportion of inventory adjustment cycle and inventory coverage cycle will affect the increase and decrease trend of the bullwhip effect;the corruption rate has the greatest impact on the bullwhip effect of the purchaser.Therefore,enterprises should promote the application of advanced preservation technology,reduce their own bullwhip effect,and adopt large-scale planting groups to develop modern agriculture.