参保人数的估计与“全面二孩”的影响

Estimation of the Number of Participants in Old-Age Insurance and the Impact of“Overall Two-child Policy”

参保人数是影响社会养老保险测算准确性和可靠性的非常关键的因素。文章对比常见的两类共六种估计参保人数的方法,发现第二类方法整体优于第一类方法。其中,分要素建模法最适合估计我国社会养老保险的参保人数。结合Lee-Carter模型预测的中国人口动态生命表,细分参保人群,用分要素建模法预测企业职工基本养老保险未来50年的参保人数,得到其95%的置信区间,提高了预测的准确性。若不考虑“全面二孩”政策,则企业参保人员“退职比”呈先下降、后平缓上升、再快速上升、继而平缓上升的趋势。这不同于以往的研究结果。在“全面二孩”政策下,若政策实施效果越好,“退职比”下降幅度就越大,越有利于减轻未来在职人员对退休人员的养老负担。

The number of participants in old-age insurance is a key factor affecting the accuracy and reliability of the insurance calculation.Comparing common six methods in two categories of estimating the number of participants,this paper finds that the second category as a whole is better than the first.Among these methods,the sub-factor modeling method is the most suitable to estimate the number of participants in social old-age insurance of China.Based on the stochastic life table of Chinese population predicted by Lee-Carter model,subdividing the participants,we predict the number of the participants in the basic old-age insurance for enterprise employees in the next 50 years with the subfactor modeling method,and obtains 95%confidence interval.It improves the accuracy of the prediction.We find that if the“overall two-child policy”is not considered,“the ratio of retirement to employment”in the enterprise partici⁃pants tends to decrease first,then rise gently,then rise rapidly,and then rise gently,which is different from the previ⁃ous research results.Under the“overall two-child policy”,the better the effect of the policy implementation,the great⁃er the decline in“the ratio of retirement to employment”,and the more beneficial it is to reduce the pension burden of employees to retirees in the future.