中国居民杠杆结构演变及其风险研究

Study on the Evolution and Risk of Residents’Leverage Structure

本文首先构建了居民杠杆结构产生、演变机制的理论模型,其次分析了2000年以来我国居民杠杆结构的演变路径、动力机制及其风险因素,最后提出政策建议。研究表明:我国居民杠杆存在较大结构分化,金融管制对结构产生及其演变产生影响,利率管制放松、股票发行制度改革为居民杠杆结构演化提供动力,并决定其路径,居民杠杆结构演化过程中,金融风险可能增加。本文建议,要差异化和针对性地采取金融政策,缓解居民杠杆结构分化所产生的问题,同时合理利用居民杠杆,防控杠杆结构性问题产生的金融风险。

This paper firstly constructs a theoretical model which characterise the generation and evolution mechanism of the residents’leverage structure,then analyzes the evolution path,dynamic mechanism and risk factors of residents’leverage structure since 2000,at the end of the paper,this paper puts forward some concrete suggestions.The result shows that:there is a large structural differentiation between residents’leverage in China,and financial regulation has an impact on the generation and evolution of the structure.The deregulation of interest rate and the reform of stock issuance system provide impetus for the evolution of residents’leverage structure and determine its path.In the process of the evolution of residents’leverage structure,financial risks may increase.This paper suggests that the differentiated and targeted financial policies should effectively control the differentiation of residents’leverage structure,make rational use of residents’leverage,prevent and control the financial risks caused by leverage structural problems.