当代海洋风险的产生和应对——以海洋风险中的“黑天鹅”事件为例

On the Emergence and Response of Contemporary Marine Risks——Taking the“Black Swan”Event in Marine Risks as an Example

人类发展进程的加速致使我们处在一个风险社会中,对于海洋的开发和利用也使海洋风险频发。其中海洋风险中的“黑天鹅”事件既具有典型的不确定性、社会性和不对称性的传统风险特征,又具有自然风险与人为风险叠加性、低可能性与高破坏性、海洋风险扩散中的连锁性、风险承担主体迁移性的新特征。对此类事件进行具体地特征与类别分析,可以形成对海洋风险中的“黑天鹅”事件的初步认识,从而总结出造成此类风险的对海洋认知和利用的矛盾、风险传播过程的扭曲等影响因素;这类海洋风险可以通过利用现代技术加大对海洋的认知和治理,提高公众参与度,完善地方政府应急管理机制以及有效的海洋风险媒体传播等措施来应对。

The acceleration of human development process has placed us in a risky society,and the exploration of the oceans and seas has also led us to frequent marine risks.The“black swan”event,which is linked to marine risks,is not only characterized by the traditional characteristics of uncertainty,socialization and asymmetry,but also by the new features of additivity of natural and anthropogenic risks,coexistence of low probability and high damage,possibility of chain effect of marine risks,and mobility of subjects.An analysis of the specific characteristics and types of such events can provide a preliminary understanding of the“black swan”events in marine risks,and thus help us summarize the factors that cause contradictions between human perception and exploration of the oceans,the deviations in the process of risk dissemination and other factors that contribute to such risks.It is suggested that such marine risks can be coped with by the measures that aim to increase the perception and governance of the oceans using modern technology,enhance public participation,improve the emergency management mechanism of local governments and effectively stop marine risk dissemination.