中国市场化改革对经济增长的空间影响效应研究--基于空间杜宾模型的实证

Research on Spatial Effect of China s Market-Oriented Reform to Economic Growth--Empirical Study Based on The Spatial Durbin Model

在对市场化指数测度的基础上,将市场化进程这一制度因素纳入经济增长模型之中,并基于2000—2016年中国省际面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型实证分析市场化改革对经济增长的空间影响效应,利用偏微分效应分解方法测算市场化改革的直接效应、间接效应和总效应。结果显示:相比于普通回归模型,基于空间模型估计的市场化改革在促进经济增长中的边际贡献更大,而且市场化改革具有正向的空间溢出效应,即一个地区市场化水平的提高能够拉动周边地区的经济增长;同时,人力资本、物质资本、交通基础设施和技术在促进当地经济的发展中均扮演着重要的作用。为此,应继续推进市场经济体制改革,加强区域间经济交流,扩大技术创新和基础设施投资。

The market-oriented process is an institutional factor,which is incorporated into the economic growth model based on the measurement of market-oriented indicators.Based on the inter-provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2016,the spatial Durbin model is used to empirical analyze the space effect of market-oriented reform on the economic growth,and the partial differential effect decomposition method is used to calculate the direct effect,indirect effect and total effect of such reform.The results show that:the market-oriented reform based on the spatial model estimation has a greater marginal contribution to the promotion of economic growth compared with the ordinary regression model,and the market reform has a positive spatial spillover effect,that is,the promotion of market level in a region can drive the economic growth in surrounding areas;human capital,physical capital,transportation infrastructure and technology all play an important role in promoting the development of local economy.Thus,the reform of the market economy system should be continuously advanced,to strengthen inter-regional economic exchanges and expand technological innovation and infrastructure investment.