城市综合管廊内燃气泄漏及应急预案模糊故障树分析

Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis of Gas Leakage and Emergency Plan in Urban Comprehensive Pipe Gallery

为进一步保障天然气管道入廊后的安全性,采用模糊故障树分析方法,从风险研究角度评估城市综合管廊内燃气管道泄漏的故障概率,识别出其中的主要风险点,同时针对燃气管道泄漏突发性强、场景复杂、维修难度大等特点,制定专用应急预案,并对应急预案的完备性进行评估。研究结果表明,采用模糊故障树理论,可以有效对城市综合管廊内燃气泄漏进行有效评估。采用故障树评估方法,结合广泛使用的检查表单的方法,将书面性的应急预案转化为影响预案体系的节点或事件,将评估过程有机结合定性分析和定量评价两种常见方式,为城市综合管廊内燃气泄漏应急预案完备性评估中引入定量评价做了一个有益尝试。

In order to further ensure the safety of natural gas pipeline after entering the gallery,the fuzzy fault tree analysis method is used to evaluate the failure probability of gas pipeline leakage in urban utility tunnel from the perspective of risk research,and identify the main risk points.At the same time,according to the characteristics of gas pipeline leakage,such as strong sudden,complex scene and difficult maintenance,a special emergency plan is formulated and the completeness was evaluated.The research results show that the fuzzy fault tree theory can effectively evaluate the gas leakage in the urban integrated pipe corridor.By using the fault tree assessment method and the widely used check list method,the written emergency plan is transformed into the nodes or events that affect the plan system.The evaluation process is organically combined with qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation,which makes a beneficial attempt to introduce quantitative evaluation into the integrity assessment of the emergency plan for gas leakage in the urban utility tunnel.