基于MNL模型计算的城区公共交通发展策略研究

Department of Urban Public Transport Development Strategy Based on MNL Model

2018年苏州率先成为全国第一个地级市公交都市,走出了一条具有“苏式公交”特色的发展模式,公共交通已成为苏州百姓出行的优先选择。随着轨道交通、有轨电车等主干线路的逐步成网,常规公交将逐步转型升级为接驳配套,着重解决居民“最后一公里”出行问题。本论文以调查问卷为基础,结合苏州高新区交通出行者的出行特征建立MNL模型,并使用离散选择模型专用计算软件——BIOGEME进行计算,计算出满足出行者出行需求的运力结构,通过现状与计算的运力结构比较,提出了符合苏州高新区居民出行需求的最佳运力结构,并对高新区公共交通可持续发展提出了建议。

In 2018,Suzhou took the lead in becoming the first prefecture-level city bus city in the country,and it has developed a development model with the characteristics of"Su-style bus".With the gradual network formation of main lines such as rail transit and trams,conventional buses will be gradually transformed and upgraded into connection facilities,focusing on solving the residents'"last mile"travel problem.Based on the questionnaire,this paper combines the travel characteristics of Suzhou's high-tech zone traffic travelers to establish an MNL model,and uses discrete selection model special calculation software-BIOGEME to calculate,calculate the capacity structure to meet the traveler's travel needs Comparing the calculated transport capacity structure,the best transport capacity structure that meets the travel needs of residents in Suzhou High-tech Zone is proposed,and suggestions are made for the sustainable development of public transport in the hightech zone.