制造业投入服务化、服务贸易壁垒与全球价值链分工

Servitization of Manufacturing Input,Barriers to Trade in Services and Division of the Global Value Chains

当前制造业投入服务化成为经济结构转型的典型特征,然而服务贸易壁垒依然较高,制造业投入服务化与服务贸易壁垒之间的交互作用是导致全球价值链分工进程放缓的结构性动因。本文在构建一般均衡模型的基础上,运用世界投入产出表数据计量分析制造业投入服务化与服务贸易壁垒对全球价值链分工的影响效应。结果表明:总体而言,制造业投入服务化与服务贸易壁垒的交互效应对全球价值链分工产生逆向冲击。制造业投入服务化与服务贸易壁垒的交互作用主要是通过缩短生产步长和提高中间品价格两种渠道降低全球价值链分工水平。本文试图从制造业投入服务化和服务贸易壁垒的双重视角,为当前经济逆全球化现象提供一个全新的解读思路。

With the current trend of anti-globalization spreading through the global economy,the economic and trade relations between the US and China continue to face many uncertainties.Moreover,the novel coronavirus pandemic currently threatens to“decouple”or“break”the global value chains.During this transition period in the world economy,the servitization of manufacturing input has become a typical feature of economic restructuring.The servitization of manufacturing input means that service factors play an increasingly important role in delivering the total inputs of the manufacturing industry.Despite this trend,there are still many restrictions on trade in services.The interaction between the servitization of manufacturing input and barriers to trade in services is a structural cause of the slowdown in the global value chains.Thus,theoretical research is needed on these issues to help clarify how the servitization of manufacturing input and policy changes in service trade will affect the division of the global value chains.In particular,if we can prove that reducing the barriers to trade in services will deepen the division of the value chains,this will provide a new basis for“re-globalization”.The structural contradiction between the servitization of manufacturing input and the barriers to trade in services is the main cause of the slowdown of the global value chains.The barriers to trade in services hinder the transfer of high-quality services from developed countries to developing countries.As a result,the intermediate producers in developing countries cannot obtain optimal allocations of the service factors,which increases the cost of manufacturing intermediate products in the developing countries due to the“ripple effect”in the input-output relations.Moreover,the lack of high-end service products means the developing countries are unable to produce high-end intermediate products,leads them to reconsider their outsourcing decisions,and results in manufacturing industries moving back to their own countries,thus reducing the division of the global value chains.The core explanatory variables used in this paper are the servitization of manufacturing input and barriers to trade in services.The data on the servitization of manufacturing input come from the World Input-Output Database(WIOD),and the original data on service trade barriers come from the World Bank.The core explanatory variable is the division of the global value chains,and the original data are also from WIOD.The time range for the sample is 2000-2014.The results show that in general,the interaction effect of the servitization of manufacturing input and barriers to trade in services has a negative impact on the division of the global value chains.The higher the service inputs in the manufacturing industry,the greater the negative impact that the barriers to trade in services have on the division of the global value chains.Moreover,the interaction mainly reduces the division of the global value chains by shortening the production step and increasing the prices of intermediate goods.These findings suggest that the environment of the service trade system needs to be improved,and that policymakers should promote the deep integration of the manufacturing and high-end service industries.In addition,all countries should continue to speed up the negotiations on the service issues in the international economy and trade,seek to reduce the barriers to trade in services,and speed up the opening up of the service industry.This paper makes a number of contributions to the literature.First,we attempt to explain the causes of the slowdown in the division of the global value chains from the dual perspectives of economic restructuring and the barriers to trade in services.There are inherent structural contradictions between the constant demand for intermediate inputs of services,especially high-end service products,and the barriers to trade in services that hinder the process of servitization.Second,to provide a theoretical basis for our analysis,we establish a general equilibrium model that includes the nested production of the manufacturing and service industries.Third,our analysis effectively identifies the mechanism of the interaction effect of the servitization of manufacturing input and the barriers to trade in services on value chain participation in relation to the two channels capturing the production step and intermediate prices.