涩北气田集输管道风险评价方法修正

Correction of risk assessment method for gathering and transportation pipelines in Sebei Gas Field

为了评估涩北气田天然气集输管道风险,使风险评价结果更加准确,对中国现有的半定量风险评价规范的失效可能性及失效后果评价因子进行了对比分析。结合涩北气田天然气集输管道运营现状,确定了风险评价一级评价因子11个、二级评价因子59个。利用层次分析法对涩北气田天然气集输管道失效后果评价因子权重进行计算修正,确定了半定量风险评价计算方法。选取涩北气田具有代表性的两条天然气集输管道为例,采用修正前及修正后的方法进行风险评价,将两种方法的评价结果进行对比,结果表明修正后的半定量风险评价方法更加符合涩北气田地域特点和管道实际风险状况。

To assess the risks of natural gas gathering and transportation pipelines in Sebei Gas Field and obtain more accurate risk assessment results,the failure possibility and failure consequence assessment factors of China’s current semi-quantitative risk assessment specifications were compared and analyzed.According to the operation status of the gas gathering and transportation pipeline in Sebei Gas Field,11 first-grade factors and 59 second-grade factors for risk assessment were determined.Analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method was used to calculate and correct the weight of failure consequence assessment factors for the gas gathering and transportation pipeline in Sebei Gas Field,and the calculation method of semi-quantitative risk assessment was determined.Two representative natural gas gathering and transportation pipelines in Sebei Gas Field were selected as examples and the risk assessment was carried out with the methods before and after correction respectively.Comparison of the assessment results of the two methods shows that the corrected semi-quantitative risk assessment method is more consistent with the regional characteristics of Sebei Gas Field and the actual risk condition of the pipeline.