我国省级电力强度影响因素研究——基于空间计量模型分析

Study on Influencing Factors of Provincial Power Intensity in China——Analysis based on spatial econometric model

随着城市化的快速推进,各省之间的流动性逐渐加强,各地经济的互动发展更加紧密,因此,空间因素对研究省际相邻效应、溢出效应具有相当的意义。本文借助空间计量模型对2013-2017年中国各省及直辖市电力强度的影响因素进行分析,其中选取了各省及直辖市的GDP、人口总数、能源消耗量以及年均气温作为解释变量,以各省电力强度作为被解释变量,分别建立了空间滞后模型和空间误差模型,考察解释变量是否对电力强度存在空间依赖性。实证分析发现,各省能源消耗量对电力强度的影响最为显著,并给出相关的政策建议。

With the rapid development of urbanization,the mobility among provinces is gradually strengthened,and the interactive development of all region’s economy become more closely.Therefore,spatial factors have absolute significance for the study of inter provincial adjacency effect and spillover effect.In this paper,the spatial econometric model is used to analyze the influencing factors of the power intensity of China’s certain provinces and municipalities from 2013 to 2017.GDP,population,energy consumption and annual average temperature of each province and municipality are selected as explanatory variables,and the power intensity of each province and municipality is taken as the explanatory variable,therefore the spatial lag model and the spatial error model are set to investigate whether the variables have spatial dependence on power intensity.The empirical analysis shows that the energy consumption of each province has the most significant impact on the power intensity,and gives the relevant policy recommendations.