四川省新型冠状病毒肺炎本地感染病例流行病学特征分析

Epidemiological Characteristics of The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in Sichuan Province

目的分析四川省新型冠状病毒肺炎本地感染病例流行病学特征分析,为科学防治提供依据。方法从疾病监测信息报告管理系统中获取截止2020-02-19四川省报告的所新冠肺炎个案资料,采用描述性流行病学方法分析。结果共报告564例病例,输入病例282例,本地感染病例282例;2月2日至2月14日,可能是四川省扩散传播模式;21个市(州)中,17个市(州)有本地新冠肺炎病例报告,分布在全省65个县(市、区);主要分布在省会城市(成都市)及边界城市(甘孜州、达州和攀枝花市),发病数较高的县为甘孜道孚县、攀枝花东区、达州市开江县。人群普遍易感,主要以中青年人群为主,不同代系年龄分布差异有统计学意义(χ~2=91.77,P<0.05),本地病例来源主要以输入病例感染为主,本地病例重症感染率为8.94%,无症状感染者率为15.60%;仅有44.75%的病例以发热为首发症状。结论 2019-nCoV流行特征提示四川省疫情尚未结束,仍存在社区传播的风险,建议加强对原因不明确的病例和无症状感染者开展进一步研究,倡导各单位开展体温监测同时增加其他症状监测和排查,尤其是复工、复学后大量人员流动与接触,增加了新冠肺炎传播风险,必须继续落实好社区和特殊人群场所、公共场所、学校等为单位的首例病例的发现和处置,防治疫情反弹,同时要强化对入境人员的监测和防控,防止逆输入流行。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus pneumonia(NCP)in Sichuan province so as to provide the evidence for scientific prevention and treatment.Methods The NCP cases reported in Sichuan until February 19,2020 were obtained from Disease Supervision Information Management System.Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the NCP cases.Results A total of 564 cases were reported,including 282 imported cases and 282 local infected cases.From January 18,2020 to February 8,2020,the epidemic of the NCP showed a spreading mode in Sichuan Province.17 out of 27 cities(prefectures)reported NCP cases.Totally,NCP cases distributed in 65 Country(districts)in Sichuan Province.Most cases are concentrated in the provincial capital city of Chengdu and the provincial border cities,Ganzi,Dazhou and Panzhihua.The counties with more cases are Daofu county in Ganzi prefectures,Panzhihua eastern district and Kaijiang county in Dazhou city.All people are susceptible to NCP,especially middle-aged and elderly man.Most of NCP cases are imported cases in Sichuan province,followed by the cases infected by the imported cases.There were 52.50%of cases with unknown cause or infected by unknown cases.8.94%of cases were severe,and 15.60%of cases were asymptomatic infection.Only 55.25%of cases have fever as the first symptom.Conclusion The NCP epidemic is not over in Sichuan Province,and there is still a risk of community transmission.Further studies are needed on cases with unknown cause and asymptomatic infections.Organizations should carry out other symptoms monitoring besides the temperature monitoring,especially under the circumstance that a lot of people return to work or school.The first detection and the first disposal of the NCP case need to be strengthened in community,public places and schools.Meanwhile,it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of inbound personnel to prevent the reverse import of the foreign epidemic.