基于Visual MODFLOW的煤层底板突水量预测研究

Study on water inrush quantity prediction from coal seam floor based on Visual MODFLOW

随着我国东部矿区煤层开采水平不断向深部拓展,底板奥灰水突水事故时有发生,往往造成严重的人员伤亡和财产损失。为准确预测煤层底板突水量,以新安煤矿为例,在概化该矿水文地质条件的基础上,建立了底板奥灰水渗流运动基本微分方程并采用有限差分法进行求解,利用Visual MODFLOW软件实现了该渗流运动的三维可视化数值模拟,结合2011年3月至2012年2月一个水文年的实际水位观测值对该模型的模拟水位进行验证和校核,依据该模型模拟水位值采用水均衡法计算得出底板突水危险区域的奥灰水量,即为突水量预测值。研究结果表明:该模型的模拟水位最大误差小于11%,一般4%左右;应用该模型模拟水位值计算危险区域突水量为1150 m^3/h,与1995年该区域发生的特大奥灰突水事故平均突水量1244.3 m^3/h接近,预测结果真实可靠。

Along with coal exploration’s being expanded into deep-burial strata in Eastern China,floor water inrush accidents of Ordovician limestone occur often,which cause serious casualties and property losses.Scientific research of water inrush quantity prediction benefit to safe mining and water disaster control.This paper used derivation of the finite-difference equation for Ordovician limestone aquifer water heads,which were solved using the finite difference method based on generalizations of the Xin’an Mine’s hydrogeological conditions and three-dimensional flow numerical simulations using Visual MODFLOW.The simulated water levels were verified and calibrated by actual observation data for the entire hydrological year from March,2011 to February,2012;the errors for each period were all less than 11%,generally around 4%.The Ordovician limestone aquifer water quantity in water inrush danger area was calculated according to the simulated levels is about 1150 m^3/h.The results show that the prediction of water inrush quantity is quite similar to the severe water inrush of 1244.3 m^3/h that occurred in 1995 in the same place.The prediction result is accurate.