炼钢合金需求预测与采购优化决策模型

Demand prediction and purchase optimization decision model for alloy in steel-making

介绍了宝钢宝山基地炼钢合金采购决策系统的相关模型技术,首先利用冶金机理建模与统计分析,建立了出钢记号与合金消耗的对应关系;然后结合销售计划与历史数据,构建了基于合金单耗与时间序列分析的合金需求预测模型;最后结合库存优化理论,以采购费和存贮费最小为目标,构建合金采购与库存优化模型,给出炼钢合金的最优采购策略。

The related models of the alloy purchasing decision system in Baoshan base of Baosteel is introduced.Firstly,the corresponding relationship between steel grades and alloy consumption is established by using metallurgical mechanism modeling and statistical analysis methods.Then,the alloy demand prediction model based on alloy unit consumption and time series analysis is constructed by combining sales plan and historical data.Finally,The alloy purchasing and inventory optimization model,which gives the optimal purchasing strategy,is built to minimize the total cost on purchasing and storage by combining inventory optimization theory.